Writers : Heydari, A. A.; Yusefi, M.; Gholami, R.
Refference : 28th Symposium on Geosciences and the 14th Symposium on Geological Society of Iran
Publishing Year : 1389

Abstract :

In economic studies of mining projects, there are many factors as uncertain variables related to the future. Therefore, such studies should be carried out based on forecasting. To obtain reliable results in these situations, we should use risk analysis methods under uncertainty. One of these uncertainty methods is to employ models to be simulated. In these models, some factors as random variables will be studied for the future. Future prediction of each random variable is assessed considering a probability distribution function. The aim of this research work are to describe modeling, simulation and its application in risk and decision management of evaluating investment project and forecast economic conditions of Koohzar gold mine in Torbateheydariyeh, Iran. For this purpose, first, probability distributions of the variables were obtained using information from the variables in previous years. Next, distribution functions of uncertain variables are replaced in appropriate cells of discounted cash flow (DCF) table. Then, random sampling was taken from the probability distributions of uncertain variables as an input of cash flow analysis. In the next stage, based on the simulation technique, probability distribution for net present value (NPV) variations was obtained as the output in the form of a graph and a function. Considering the output, all of the NPV variations can be forecasted. Therefore, a decision for investment evaluation in the next years is practically made.

Subject List : gold