Writers : Eslami, Ali Akbar
Refference : Geosciences Scientific Quarterly Journal,No.:12,P.:2
Publishing Year : 1373

Abstract :
Over centuries, various methods, generally based on either observation of precursors or models oi regularly repeating buildups and releases of strain in rocks, have been used to predict earthquakes, but wit! little success. Failure in achieving a deterministic prediction has recently been attributed to the chaotic natur! of the earthquake phenomenon. In this relation, Aki (1981) was the first who suggested that the number of earthquakes in a region has a fractal dependence on the characteristic dimension of the rupture. Later, this concept gained support from both theoretical analysis and applied techniques, such as the study of cyclic behavior of fault systems. At present, the chaos scenario for earthquake, is largely based on fractal analysi! using logistic equations. For instance, in two similar hypotheses, the appearance of chaos is ascribed to the stress fluctuations in one and to the chaotic feedback interaction in the other. Since the chaotic index of a system is very sensitive to small agitations, scenario must include this property, regardless of the differences that they may have. This is the very sense that failure in deterministic prediction roots in it. Obviously, research efforts aimed at determination of nature, origin and characteristics of the interacting agents withir rock bodies under variable conditions, and understanding of the governing dynamics, will lead to even more perplexing questions.
Subject List : Earthquake prediction